Market intelligence · September 2026 data
David Olson Real Estate Report
Twin Cities Edition
Executive summary
Twin Cities prices are holding, but the market underneath them is changing. The median sale is $395,000, up 1.3%, while homes for sale rose 11.2% and pending sales fell 11.7%. The 30-year rate is 7.24%, versus 6.17% a year ago, which changes the payment on the same median home by about $225 a month. Owners with low-rate mortgages are staying and remodeling, new luxury homes still sell near full price, and Minnesota insurance costs keep climbing. The question is no longer what the headline number does. It is who is positioned to use the next six months.
Real Estate Snapshot
- Median sale price $395,000, up 1.3%. Prices are holding; speed is not.
- Homes for sale up 11.2% to 12,411, while pending sales fell 11.7%. Supply is outrunning demand.
- The $350,001–$500,000 band sells fastest at 42 days. $120,000 and below takes 112 days.
- Sellers received 97.7% of original list price, versus 98.4% a year ago.
Absorption is slowing faster than prices. That gap usually closes one of two ways, and which way depends on your price band and your street.
Ask what your home would sell for today →Vacation Rental Market Snapshot
- Brainerd-area occupancy 50%, up 4%. Guests are booking more nights, not just paying more.
- Revenue per available night $194, up 6%.
- Crosslake listings average $392 a night at 47% occupancy, about $47,900 a year.
- Half the nights still sit empty. The difference between an average and a top-performing lake rental is usually the property, not the lake.
A lake place can pay for part of itself. Whether yours would, or whether that next cabin pencils out, comes down to numbers specific to the property.
Run the numbers on a lake property →Home Remodeling Snapshot
- Large projects ($50,000+) rose to 66, while small jobs slipped to 73. Owners staying put are investing bigger.
- Backlogs climbed to 56. Good crews are booking further out.
- Some Upper Midwest builders report steel and aluminum costs up 5–10%, per the Minneapolis Fed.
- 38% of builders cut prices in September, by an average of 6%.
Remodel or move is a math problem with two variables most people only see half of. We see both sides.
Get a customized estimate →Custom Luxury Home Building Snapshot
- New homes over $1 million: 366 pending sales in the past year, down 0.8%.
- 1,679 resale homes over $1 million went under contract, up 11.6%.
- 12.9 months of new luxury supply versus 5.0 months for resale luxury homes.
- New luxury homes average 119 days to a contract, up 9.2%.
Buyers wait longer for new luxury homes and then pay close to full price. That tells you the bottleneck is not demand. It is finding the right lot and the right builder.
Talk about a custom build →Residential Insurance Snapshot
- Average Minnesota premium $3,987 a year, versus $3,012 nationally.
- Nationally, rates rose just 2.2% over the same period.
- Nearly 1.8 million Minnesota homes carry moderate or greater hail risk.
- A 2024 Minnesota law lets insurers non-renew after three or more covered losses (source).
Insurance is now a real line in the cost of owning, and it varies by roof, by claim history and by zip code. Most owners have not checked theirs since the rate hikes.
Check your coverage in 2 minutes →Business Brokerage Snapshot
- 2,132 businesses changed hands nationally in Q3, down 7% from a year ago.
- Valuation multiples rose 2.6%. Fewer deals, at better prices.
- Seller confidence fell to 47; buyer confidence to 49.
- 27% of owners planning to sell are considering selling sooner.
Prices are up while deal counts are down. Buyers are paying for quality and walking away from the rest. Where your business lands is a question worth asking before you list it.
Ask what your business is worth →Luxury Interior Design Snapshot
- White oak leads wood species at 51%; wood-grain cabinets are outpacing painted (59%).
- Transitional, timeless design leads at 72%. Greens (86%) and blues (78%) follow neutrals.
- 87% say kitchens are becoming showcases for statement lighting.
- 76% expect the kitchen footprint to grow over the next three years.
Design choices made today show up in resale value years from now. Some finishes add value. Others date a house the day the listing goes live.
Plan a renovation that sells →The rate effect, in one number
The Twin Cities median $395,000 home with 20% down. Principal and interest only; taxes and HOA dues not included.
Same house, $225 more every month than a year ago, before insurance. The buyers still shopping today are a different buyer. So is the seller who needs to reach them.
Sources
- Twin Cities housing, luxury and new-construction data: Minneapolis Area REALTORS® from NorthstarMLS, © ShowingTime Plus, LLC: Monthly Indicators, Housing Supply Overview, Local Market Update. Luxury and new-construction figures are rolling 12 months. Absorption is closed sales divided by homes for sale.
- Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of 2026-10-29.
- Vacation rentals: AirDNA Brainerd and Crosslake, trailing 12 months.
- Remodeling: NAHB Remodeling Market Index, Q3 2026; Housing First Minnesota Hot Sheet; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Beige Book.
- Insurance: Insurify, first half of 2026. Business sales: BizBuySell Insight Report, Q3 2026 (national data). Interior design: NKBA .
- Payments are estimates for illustration, not a loan offer.
Past editions: September 2026
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